What's in the box? Iran and the West have a Deal or No Deal moment.
Redline, the Iranian public and SPND has been poised in anticipation for the past month awaiting the outcome of the longest arm wrestling contest in history. Nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West and the series of vague, will-they-won't-they announcements tested the patience of even the most avid Iran-watcher. Well, wait no longer.
On April 1st, the moment finally came to see what was in the box.
Would Iran and the West have a Brad Pitt in Se7en moment or would they win the big prize and all go on holiday to the Bahamas?
The announcement, made on the EU's own press website, outlined a broad framework for an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. Sure some of this is open to interpretation. But hey kids that's diplomacy.
Nonetheless we feel this is a big moment and the negotiators on both sides should be applauded for persevering in the face of vociferous criticism from all sides, not to mention mounting hotel room service bills.
Significant restrictions have been placed on Iran's nuclear ambitions and in return the Iranian economy will receive a big shot in the arm. Everyone should be a winner and this could mark a new dawn in international relations between Iran and the rest of the world. In short, this really matters.
But there is a long way to go until a comprehensive framework is in place and there are so many questions left to answer. What will the details look like? How far will Iran go to address concerns the IAEA has about PMD activity? Will restrictions on enrichment be adhered to? What happens to sanctions in practical terms? Will Iran’s Foreign Minister Zarif consider his work done and take up the vacant slot in One Direction?
However, the main question Redline has is what happens to SPND now? Already believed to be operating with a vastly reduced budget, SPND is unlikely to see an increase now Iran has directly tied future economic prosperity to the issue of giving up nuclear weapons aspirations. Will this mean Mohsen Fakhrizadeh finally gives up on his nuclear ambitions and takes up blogging full time? What do the specialist scientists and engineers like Saeid Borji (سعید برجی), Mohsen Foroughizadeh (محسن فروقی زاده) and Mohammad Reza Mehdipur (محمد رضا مهدی پور) turn their hands to if nuclear weapons are no longer on the agenda? If Redline was an Iranian nuclear scientist, we would be dusting down the passport and making plans to travel the world.
A clear indication of how seriously Iran is taking this agreement will be how they deal with SPND and its collection of skilled engineers and scientists that form the core of their nuclear weapons know how. Redline will be following this one very closely. It's one thing to sign an agreement, another for it to be effectively enforced by Iran and the international community.
Oh and Mohsen, if you want to keep writing blogs Redline is recruiting...Comment on this article...